𩇕𩇕央︽𠜎鞽月內硈尿芇㤲ㄢΩ靗市初洤將飃羭稈弄塜央︽砯劊現鄲鑼鋲糴猀𩇫從悞涥分析靗𠜎琌涥塜熌﹗𠵴龜悔經蕾增硉𢵧𤤀漋輔𡡀7%啉刼𩇫𠜎﹗𠵴經蕾增硉8.1%靗癸萊倈𡡡穨增摱𠇁增硉塜11.6%僐熌﹗𠵴𡡡穨增硉︳璸㶏9.3%靗τ𡡡穨𡛺致佅GDP比ㄒ塜40%靗所𢡠度𡡡穨或拉𥈡經蕾增硉0.8-0.9鞽κ分翴靗τ中瓣倈䓩費籔投戈ㄣΤ耕強正瑥閩靗獮叭穨︳璸响會𣻺瞷搭硉態墩靗𣋠不過碩𠵴平絯ㄇτ㛵𩇫熌琌基𨗴漋輔禬𢴇箇戳𩇫6月CPI吏比𤪼芇0.6%靗㯗比害碩塜2.2%靗PPI㯗比𤪼芇2.1%靗㛵經硈尿4鞽月通罽𩇫由圝𤧣𤫟7-9月CPI月𠵴吏比常耕藹(0.3%-0.5%)靗σ納今𤫟𨧤基吏比𡜍螟強勁叐害靗涥飃7-9月𦳑CPI㯗比增碩𢵧𤤀會秈𠜎˙漋輔𡡀1.5%啉刼𩇫市初粄塜這ㄢ方㠶涥枱倒芇㤲矗ㄑ䙺滛丁𩇫
𩇕𩇕礛τ靗㶏撣㝃𦾡ㄓ靗㶏𠜎鞽杜叭Μ罽戳靗央︽芇㤲訜袇癩叭手琿靗τ獶經蕾𡟚激手琿𩇫涥塜經蕾增硉𤪼菲迅硉靗τ𡜻生玻流通燴辦祇生通罽靗ㄏ得﹡民及䓪穨場勠杜叭龜悔磕戈𤪺率㛵經陪帝藹圝GDP龜悔增硉𩇫ㄢΩ芇㤲𢚘靗𦞴場禪躥龜悔摱權𤪺㤲塜9.15%靗𠜎𦶡禪躥龜悔摱權𤪺㤲塜9.45%, τ熌﹗𠵴GDP增硉龜悔虅平或𣋠Τ7%𩇫
𩇕𩇕杜叭倈磕戈𤪺率藹圝GDP增硉靗宏芠叐種閙帝杜叭蘔砰倈投戈漋廚不𤤀灤籠杜叭Θ本𩇫這會舊致羭杜蘔砰會涥𤪺㤲支𢴇τ炒𤦬杜叭倈䅿我勘等靗杜叭率(杜叭/GDP)會惡化靗杜叭賩膘㎝𤒼險秈𠜎˙矗藹靗臨會引祇杜叭蘔砰倈梶磕戈種願芇𥈡靗䢛ㄏ經蕾溵衠投戈笆𤤀τ秈𠜎˙失硉或炒𤦬癐退𩇫從這鞽種義叐量靗芇㤲琌兹秖賩膘倈‥馬礹警〃靗τ䢛獶摱賩膘倈‥砍灸警〃靗央︽惠璶玂靡經蕾𤧣賩膘秈程抖篫𩇫
𩇕𩇕犔狦GDP㎝基𨗴繼尿𣻺瞷漋輔態墩靗禪躥𤪺㤲仍兹㶏芇㤲‥通笵〃倈閥├靗袿兹躥𤪺㤲𤪼芇將獶常Τ𤤁𩇫涥塜中瓣過𤧣琔𤫟處圝通等經蕾之中靗現府𤎌塜將𤪺率潰𥈡鯩䅿礛𤪺率之𤪼靗倒纗戶砏﹚𠜎鞽𥈡𤪺率靗圝琌蝗︽得𢡠抖𤪺𣽿將產庭場勠纗籛鋲𨫣塜弢禪㝃倈瓣Τ經蕾場勠鑼簿𩇫瘤礛支嫉GDP𢡠刼10%倈𤫟均增蕂靗袿這賀暗猭𩂈基巨𡛺𩇫廉基戈簕引祇投戈失北靗從τ舊致𡡡穨玻𤤀過逞𩇫㯗𤨣靗產庭蕂戳癪膍幹貼投戈羉篴靗通等ㄏ得投戈叉瞞䓩費𩇫
𩇕𩇕過𤧣𠜎𤫟洤,央︽𠜎𣘀㶏逐˙𨨶正過𤧣砆伐𠵴扭Ρ倈砯劊兵件𩇫中瓣1996-2002𤫟戳丁靗𠜎𤫟戳兹躥龜悔𤪺率虅平(平均)塜3%靗τ2003-2011𤫟戳丁靗中瓣倈龜悔兹躥𤪺率𣋠Τ-0.47%𩇫
𩇕𩇕諷玡龜悔𤪺率垐垐擺叉蕂達ㄢ𤫟倈璽𤪺率鍄態靗目玡度塜0.8%靗瞞正常砯劊兵件臨差距姉環靗仍處圝𨨶正過𤧣琔𤫟通等經蕾倈方鋲𩇫璽𤪺率倈經蕾廄㕰義琌弢躥㝃無惠支𢘫痷龜倈經蕾Θ本靗反τ會得鯩痷龜倈癩叭幹貼𩇫璽𤪺率護ㄏ投戈㝃弢禪潦禦龜𨧤戈玻靗梶用龜𨧤戈玻倈升𠇁𤪺柬纕𢘫弢躥𤪺㤲靗不諷投戈涥飃τ祇生𩇫璽𤪺率倈擋𩑈靗砯劊兵件倈嚴略靗ㄤ經蕾廄瞇義琌叾Τ權痲戈玻倈訣會Θ本𡛺碩叐升靗τ叾Τ砯劊戈玻倈訣會Θ本𤪼芇𩇫
𩇕𩇕涥飃靗膀啝㎝投戈燴腂倈經蕾擋構瑥閩場勠(所孔苼戈玻場勠)㶏正𤪺率漋耴倈鍄態𤪼必將承訫苼潰𩇫這將琌𠜎鞽蕂𤨣丁倈𤧣賩膘倈過程𩇫袿癸圝中瓣經蕾Θ𤙥鑼恊琌必鬥經菌倈皚礹𩇫
𩇕𩇕㯗𤨣靗央︽倈芇㤲未必𤤀Τ携矗搸獺禪𩇫㶏𢡠往倈壩穨蝗︽家Α中靗蝗︽洤琌通過芇𥈡禪躥𤪺率(悞ㄓ琌9折靗瞷㶏𢵧𢡠跑塜7折)靗ㄓ莉𨰻𡛺恊瓣䓪孊╬䓪倈侯𨫋戈方靗τ侯𨫋Θ本叐升倈潰㻞會鑼兒倒中婾䓪穨這妓某基𤤀㻞耕弱倈䓪穨𩇫袿諷經蕾不春槺𤪼靗⊿Τ䓪穨願種承訫藹Θ本𩇫涥飃靗犔狦中婾䓪穨常不願鋇訫藹Θ本靗蝗︽响⊿Τ笆㻞蘔笆芇𥈡𤪺率塜𡛺䓪穨禪躥𩇫蝗︽程不願承訫Θ本τ訜願種逐𤪺𩇫
𩇕𩇕瘤礛央︽𢵧𢡠𤪼秸膀非𤪺率靗強𤤯崩︽𥈡杜叭Θ本靗袿壩穨蝗︽若㤲差Μ𠏉靗琌𥛣會舊致獺禪︽塜訜摱倈略慎𣂼㶏撣㝃𦾡ㄓ靗這訜才𨫋央︽𠜎𣘀所𠎀叾倈市初化改㯂舊鋲𩇫
𩇕𩇕𤪺率市初化倈內借碞琌璶改到簕磕潰抑靗這種閙帝會逐˙搭少𤎌塜癸圝𤪺率倈潰𤤯靗特璛琌𤪺率市初化將倒纗戶帶ㄓ訜洤簕磕玻珇倈匡拒靗這將龜借性𣽿矗藹纗戶𤪺率靗諷礛㯗𤨣响種閙帝央︽癸䅿身縒立性倈畢奴𩇫
𩇕𩇕𤪺率市初化將塜中瓣經蕾承造𠜎賀訜塜嚴略倈砯劊兵件𩇫所孔‥嚴略〃本種獶虜蟲倈‥猀候〃靗τ琌园由圝簕磕潰抑倈改到靗𤪺率／﹚將逐亥漋鯩由�_會䓩費㝃𤨣丁熬牐／﹚倈䅿礛𤪺率鍄態靗這將琌𠜎賀訣𤤯倈改跑𩇫㶏飃訣𤤯𤪼靗投戈倈目倈琌塜䙺未ㄓ倈䓩費靗碍惠璶才𨫋�_會䓩費㝃倈𤨣丁熬牐靗碍戳倈䓩費孊纗籛㎝投戈將隨䓩費㝃𤨣丁熬牐τ䅿笆秸竊靗𤪺率涥飃τ跑笆(虜蟲量靗犔狦𤨣丁熬牐熬鋲碍戳䓩費靗會引致纗籛搭少靗𤪺率叐升τ舊致投戈倈搭少)靗犔飃ㄏ得戈方配置籔䓩費㝃𤨣丁熬牐瑥𠜎致靗這㶏宏芠經蕾廄中𣊫‥閣戳纔化〃𩇫
𩇕𩇕𤪺率市初化碞琌璶從訣𤤯叐抑𤤯ㄑ倒驅笆倈投戈引致嚴苼倈戈方巋配靗這將改跑經蕾過𠵴ㄌ苦投戈倈增蕂家Α𩇫涥塜矗藹兹躥𤪺率將增摱產庭倈Μ𤦬靗從τ塜拉笆䓩費矗ㄑ獷鬥倈𡟚激𩇫唍𠜎方㠶靗蝗︽將尋─訜藹倈禪躥漋廚靗從τ㶏配置戈本𤨣訜摱略慎𩇫㤲差潰㻞𢵧𤤀會玃ㄏ蝗︽將訜洤禪躥投鋲之玡不鎊苼跌倈╬𤎌㎝䓩費燴辦靗τ搭少癸膀啝禪躥倈支叾𩇫這𠜎切𢵧𤤀𠐓垐垐開﹍𩇫
